Belfast’s Political Demography: Ethno-National Populations, Segregation and Mixing

Ian Shuttleworth, Chris Lloyd and James Anderson

Tracing changes in the 'balance' of ethno-national population at different spatial scales; changes in the patterns of segregation/mixing across the Belfast built-up area and its wider Northern Ireland context; and the public political discourses about these (often highly politicised) population questions. This builds on previous work (see: www.qub.ac.uk/c-star), particularly two ESRC projects and uses standardised 100 metre grid square data 1971-2001 (and -2011) established by one of them (Anderson, Lloyd, Shuttleworth). The analysis will include changing residential patterns, commuting and migration flows, and the use of modelling methods to distinguish between 'ethnic segregation' factors and other (e.g., market) forces which structure the city. This city-wide analysis will provide a necessary context for the (by definition) untypical 'interface' and city-centre areas which are the focus of two of the modules. There will also be some more detailed work, using official statistics and secondary sources, on particular localities or issues (e.g., where differential population change is a cause of conflict; and popular/media discourses about demography), but related fieldwork (e.g., interviewing) is organised in Modules B2 and B5, below.